According to the source, analysts argue that an end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) would likely be a stronger upside catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) than a single policy rate cut because halting balance sheet runoff stops USD liquidity from shrinking (source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, May 1, 2024; Board of Governors H.4.1 statistical release). Traders should watch the FOMC statement and Chair Powell’s remarks for any signal of ending or further slowing QT, including changes to Treasury/MBS runoff caps or reinvestment guidance, which directly affect the pace of reserve creation (source: Federal Reserve, FOMC communications). Immediate cross-asset reads for BTC include the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the 2-year Treasury yield, and 10-year real yields, where a weaker dollar and falling real yields typically coincide with easier financial conditions that have supported risk assets historically (sources: ICE for DXY; U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve for yields). Rate-cut odds are commonly tracked via futures-implied probabilities on the CME FedWatch Tool, which helps quantify policy path expectations for trade timing around the decision (source: CME Group, FedWatch Tool).